Depression and anxiety during COVID-19

COVID-19 mental disorders collaborators conclude that, throughout 2020, the pandemic has led to a 27.6% increase in cases of major depressive disorders and a 25.6% increase in cases of anxiety disorders worldwide .

However, we suggest that these prevalence estimates are likely to be significantly inflated. Decades of trauma research have shown that, for most people, negative life events such as bereavement or exposure to disaster are typically followed by resilience (minimal effect on symptoms of anxiety or depression, or both) or recovery (initial short-term increase in symptoms of anxiety or depression, or both, followed by recovery).

This model matches what large-scale studies and reviews

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have found in the context of COVID-19. In a meta-analysis of longitudinal cohort studies,

there was an acute increase in mental health symptoms early in the pandemic. Symptoms decreased significantly over time and were indistinguishable from pre-pandemic symptom patterns within months of the outbreak.

Psychological adaptation matters in the context of the study of collaborators,

because the authors’ estimates of the impact of COVID-19 are based on studies conducted primarily during the very early phase of the pandemic (data collection for 39 of the 48 studies occurred primarily between March and May 2020 ; Annex). At this time, symptoms of anxiety or depression were most severe and likely represented an acute reaction to an unexpected and unknown emerging crisis. The authors then extrapolated from these immediate reactions to infer how SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and human mobility affected mental health throughout 2020. However, ignoring of the transient nature of changes in mental health symptoms during the pandemic and the potentially decreasing relationship between COVID-19 impact indicators and anxiety or depression throughout 2020 means that prevalence estimates could be grossly overestimated in the study of collaborators.